Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-20T00:02:56

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) may rise above the Active level at the diurnal peaks in response to the increase in solar wind speed during the four-day period. However, the corresponding fluence is not expected to rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) with only a modest increase in the driving solar wind speeds from the small positive coronal hole 89. This is supported by the REFM model which indicates low levels prevailing over the next few days, together with testimony from the 27-day recurrence which also strongly encourages expectation of below-Active levels continuing in this forecast period.