MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-18T00:01:38
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to continue mainly below Active levels through the period, as will the corresponding fluence level. The REFM forecast model is pointing to ongoing low levels on Days 1 to 3. However, the fluence may move towards the Active threshold on Day 4 following the arrival of the next high speed solar wind stream. This is suggested by the 27-day REFM recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-18T00:01:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |