Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-11T00:00:27

The high energy electron flux is expected to vary diurnally, with above Active-level peaks, especially on Days 1 and Day 2. The current electron fluence is above the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu) and will likely continue through Day 1 and Day 2 (11th to 12th) at this level, but expected to see a gradually decreasing trend below the Active threshold later in the period. There is fairly low confidence in the later forecast with the REFM suggesting a fall on Days 2 and 3, as does the 27-day recurrence which remained below Active on the previous rotation. The current fluence level has been re-energised slightly from recent high solar wind speed effects, and the fall off of this is difficult to predict, especially as the models give little useful guidance.