Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-13T00:12:59

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at moderate levels, and is likely to oscillate between background and moderate levels throughout much of the forecast period, under predominantly weak or slightly elevated solar wind conditions. Any potential geomagnetic enhancements from 9th March CME, or the the next coronal hole high speed stream arrival, could result in further temporary decreases. Following the anticipated onset of the next high speed stream from coronal hole 87, the flux values are likely to rise again later in the period.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values have now dropped below the Active threshold, and are expected to follow a slow declining trend. However, there is a chance of the Active threshold being approached, or exceeded again on day 4 following anticipated connection with CH87.