MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-12T00:27:27
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron fluence levels at GEO have gradually declined during the last 24hours, due to the natural decay since the last high speed stream enhancements, along with a geomagnetic disturbance potentially caused by the southern crown coronal hole and CH76. Whilst a slight increase in flux levels is possible from any interaction with the fast wind from these coronal holes, fluence levels are most likely to remain below Active levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-12T00:27:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |