Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-19T00:04:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue with a gradually rising trend during the early forecast period, perhaps reaching high levels (greater than 1000pfu) during the diurnal maximum on Days 1 to 2 (19th and 20th) and possible on Days 3 and 4 (21st & 22nd). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to continue with the current slow rising trend, perhaps getting close to the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on Days 3 to 4 (21st to 22nd), but with only a slight chance of rising above. The REFM model is indicating that fluence levels will remain below the Active level, as is the 27-day recurrence.