Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-18T00:06:54

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has recently remained at background to moderate levels, while the corresponding 24-hour fluence is well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) but has been showing a slow rising trend in the past 24 hours.

The flux is expected to continue at background to moderate levels at first, with a gradually rising trend throughout the forecast period, perhaps reaching high levels (greater than 1000pfu) during the diurnal maximum on day 1 and 2 (18th-19th), before reducing again on day 3 (20th).

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to continue with the current slow rising trend, perhaps approaching the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 2, before falling slightly on day 3.