Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-25T00:05:04

There are two expected sources for increasing high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous Earth orbit in the period. Firstly, the now arrived CME that left the Sun on 20 March, although this looks of limited capability; and secondly, the impending high speed stream from coronal hole 93, which carries a higher risk.

At the time of writing, the current CME was of insufficient strength to make a noteworthy impression on high energy electrons, and while this soon may or may not cease to be the case, the chances of 24-hour integrated fluence breaching Active seem relatively unlikely. 

This leaves the impact of a periodic increase in solar wind speed from coronal hole 93 the main consideration during the coming working week. Recent STEREO A solar wind speeds saw a gradual ramp up to a peak of 550km/s, which may prove enough to give a Chance of exceedence, but probably quite late in the four days, with the peak translating to day four at Earth (Thursday 28 March).