Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-24T00:24:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to start at mainly background levels on day 1, with further reductions likely due to increased geomagnetic activity on day 1 due to the passage of a CIR ahead of the high speed stream from coronal hole 06. As the coronal hole high speed stream becomes established, electron flux values are likely to increase high levels (1e3 pfu).

Corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to steadily increase through the period, perhaps exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during day 3.