Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-26T00:21:02

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at background to moderate levels until at least the end of day 3, or more likely day 4. The arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 18 will then enhance electron counts, with flux levels becoming moderate to high. The corresponding electron fluence will then respond, likely rising close to the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of day 4, with a chance of exceeding this value by the end of the period.  This is supported by persistence, where Active values were reached by the equivalent day 5 on the previous solar rotation.