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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-27T00:19:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at background to moderate levels on days one and two (Sunday 26 and Monday 27 May).

The main forecast feature in the period is coronal hole 18, which is considered most likely to arrive on day two (28 May). Geomagnetic activity associated with this feature should attenuate measured electron counts at GOES for a time during Tuesday, with the expected reaction in electron counts coming later in the day and into day three (29 May).The risk of Active electron fluence is most likely during day 4 (30 May) as with the last rotation.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-05-27T00:19:13
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 50% 3%
Day 4 60% 5%