Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-01T00:26:01

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at high levels and is forecast to stay at this level through much of day 1. The electron flux is expected to decline through days 2 to 4, with generally benign solar wind conditions, resulting in steadily decreasing diurnal peaks. Based on persistence, these peaks are still likely to be above or close to the high threshold.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are likely to rise slightly through day 1, due to the residual effects of the high speed stream, but are not expected to reach the Very Active threshold. A slow reduction in the fluence could result in values falling below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during day 3 or 4.