MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-08T00:02:06
With solar wind conditions expected to remain benign over the next few days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is most likely going to remain below Active levels through the period. The solar wind may be source of slightly higher electron flux following the arrival of a high speed stream, resulting in diurnal peaks likely to be above or close to the high threshold, but the corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence should nevertheless remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
The Met Office REFM output continues to indicate very low levels of fluence over the next few days and, as long as those filament regions remain inactive, this signal is considered to offer sound guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-08T00:02:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |