MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-15T00:25:04
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at mainly moderate levels through the next four days in the absence of an elevated solar wind, but with a gradually declining trend. There is a chance that the high threshold (1e3 pfu) will be reached by day 4, although this is subject to any significant geomagnetic enhancements.
The corresponding 24 hour flux is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 4 days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-15T00:25:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |