Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-09T00:16:43

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to be at mainly Moderate levels but with diurnal peaks close to or slightly above the high threshold (1e3pfu) especially on Days 1&2 (9&10 May). Activity may increase later in the period if solar winds become enhanced from the arrival of the CME on Day 3 (11 May).

Corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period as a reflection of the predominately benign solar wind conditions. As mentioned above the fluence may increase during Day 4 (12 May).