Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-02T00:05:24

The high energy electron forecast reflects the lower-than-average confidence inherited from the geomagnetic forecast, specifically the impact of forthcoming coronal holes 94 and 97. On balance, while probabilities of exceeding the Active fluence threshold rise in the four days, the fluence is not considered Likely to exceed 1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1.

This is despite the fact that 27-day recurrence suggests levels close to the Active fluence threshold - this is thought to be partly due to a higher inherited starting fluence from an earlier coronal hole on that occasion.