MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-25T00:15:42
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue at background levels through today and tomorrow, but with an increasing trend from day 3 to breach the High threshold (1000 pfu). At the moment the magnetosphere is compressed enough to take GOES15 out of the outer radiation belt on the day-side, resulting in a very low flux. However, the high energy electron flux will increase during the coming days as the magnetosphere starts to relax and recharge with electrons. The greatest risk of breaching Active threshold on the fluence is Day 4 (28th Jan).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-25T00:15:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |