Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-10T00:06:51

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux is currently at high levels but with a steadily declining diurnal peak. This pattern is likely to continue over the next four days, but with sharper reductions possible during any significant geomagnetic enhancements, more especially associated with any CME interaction.

The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is starting the period just above the Active threshold, but should gradually decline below the Active threshold, perhaps with a sharper reduction later in the forecast period if enhanced geomagnetic activity associated with the 8th March CME occurs. The general decreasing trend is is supported by the Met Office REFM output.