Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-02T00:26:54

The high energy electron flux is currently at background levels, however with the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 70, this is expected to enhance electron counts, such that  high levels are expected throughout. Despite this, further periods of geomagnetic activity could potentially lead to intervals of suppressed flux, such that fluence levels will only gradually rise. Persistence then suggests fluence levels will rise above the Active threshold during early on day 2 and into day 3. Whilst the onset of this stream has occurred slightly earlier than persistence would suggest, there is only a slight chance for the onset of Active fluence on day 2. This is supported with REFM expectations, though REFM looks a little fast in reaching the threshold.