Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-05T00:10:53

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO, and its associated fluence is currently at moderate to background levels. However, the high speed streams from the various coronal hole features on the solar disc are likely to enhance peak flux levels, once any initial suppression from any geomagnetic activity subsides. This will lead to a chance of Active fluence levels developing by day 3, and persisting into day 4.   

However, confidence is low, due to the poor guidance currently provided by persistence. This is because the coronal holes are new, or more substantial compared to the previous rotation. Whilst REFM is providing good short-term guidance, this also is likely to be under-forecasting the expected enhancement by the end of day 2.