Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-14T00:17:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at above active levels at times through the period, especially on day 1 (14th), with fluence levels also above active at times. Fluence is currently above the active threshold, but there is lower confidence of this continuing from day 2 (15th) with CME arrivals possibly compressing the magetopause and therefore producing temporary lower fluence levels at geostationary orbit level. However, this compression may be followed by a re-energised outer Van Allen belt once compression is released.

The REFM forecast model suggests lower fluence levels from day 2, as does the 27-day recurrence. However, the recurrence cannot indicate the recent rise above threshold, which followed a CME arrival.