MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-15T00:29:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at High levels at times through the period, in response to high speed stream influences. However, CMEs may continue to compress the magnetopause at times with intermittent lower flux levels. There is a chance that the electron fluence may exceed the active threshold during the forest period. However, confidence is low on days 1-3 (15th-17th May) due to CME disturbances to the Van Allen belts.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-05-15T00:29:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |