Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-15T00:22:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is above the high threshold and is expected to remain above this level due to the connection to a high speed stream on days 1 and 2.  The pattern from persistence shows a generally steady diurnal peak, with a similar trend expected on this rotation.

Corresponding 24 hour integrated fluence is above the Active threshold and is forecast to remain above this threshold throughout the forecast period, as a result of high flux values.  The MOSWOC REFM model shows a chance of fluence values falling below the Active threshold, but taking into account the observed fluence and the potential for elevated flux values, any reduction in fluence is likely to be more gradual than showed by the model.