Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-31T00:24:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has risen close to high levels through the last 24 hours, and there is a chance that this may be exceeded during the next diurnal peak. A rapid decline is probable on day 2 (1st April) if Earth becomes influenced by the high speed stream coming from coronal hole 95 before increasing again later in the period.

There is a chance that the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence may exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day 1 (31st March) and day 2 (1st April). On the previous rotation the fluence reached the Very Active threshold, but this was in response to a faster high speed stream than experienced this time around. Electron fluence is then likely to gradually decline through the remainder of the period. 

The REFM forecasts the fluence to breach the Active threshold during day 1 (31st March) into day 2 (1st April). Currently these values look slightly too high and thus the threshold is unlikely to be exceeded and the probabilities of this occurring have been reduced.