Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-30T00:28:57

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has risen close to high levels through the last 24 hours, and is likely to exceed this on diurnal peaks over the next two days due to the enhanced solar wind environment. A more sustained peak is possible on day 3, but a steady decline is then expected later on day 3 as the solar wind returns to background levels.

Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are forecast to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day 2 in response to the recent increase in solar winds. On the previous rotation the fluence reached the Very Active threshold, but this was in response to a faster high speed stream than experienced this time around. The overall fluence values are forecast to increase through days 1 and 2, perhaps reaching a peak on day 3, before the start of a gradual decline.