Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-28T00:19:43

Following connection to coronal hole 79 today (27th) electron flux/fluence values at GEO are expected to increase through the period, with diurnal flux peaking at high levels and Active fluence anticipated, perhaps from later on day 2 (1st March). Active fluence levels are then expected to persist for the rest of the period, as coronal hole influence lingers.

This forecast is based on using a similar trend to the previous rotation as a guide, which is currently considered better than REFM output. The REFM shows a rising trend through the period but maintains fluence levels well below the Active threshold, and is thought to be too low.