Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-18T00:13:20

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is currently varying between background and moderate levels. The flux is expected to show a general rise over the next few days to become mainly moderate to high. However, levels may then drop abruptly to background levels on day 3 (20 Aug) in any enhanced geomagnetic activity from coronal hole effects, before rising again on day 4 (21 Aug).

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is currently steady around 1e7 integrated pfu, and is expected to show a gradual rising trend in the coming days in response to rising flux levels, with an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold. However fluence levels may also then drop on day 3 if flux levels are reduced to background by geomagnetic activity. before starting to increase on day 4.