Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-14T00:24:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at moderate to high levels in the past 24 hours, with a peak value of 2256 pfu at 13/1755 UTC.  With the solar wind at background levels for the next couple of days, and no significant geomagnetic activity expected, the high energy electron flux is expected to vary between moderate and high levels at the start of the forecast period, with a slight overall gradual decline. During day 3 the high energy electron flux may increase again as a result of the arrival of the weak high speed stream from coronal hole 58.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence has exceeded the High threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for the last 24 hours. The fluence is now expected to remain just above the High threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for the start of the forecast period, but is expected to fall below the High threshold through today, then perhaps increasing above again during day 4 (17th).