MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-05T00:33:41
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will remain below Active levels at first, but will likely increase by Day 2 (6th) as a delayed response to the high speed stream arrival on Day 1. The associated fluence will also gradually increase on Days 2-4 (6th-8th) with an increasing chance of Active levels. The REFM model is currently forecasting low levels through the forecast period. The 27-day cycle suggests a rise above the Active threshold by Day 3.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-05T00:33:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |