MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-27T00:31:27
Any increases in solar wind activity early in this forecast period are likely to be minor, meaning minimal changes to the electron flux and fluence. Flux is expected to be at normal background levels most of the time, perhaps increasing to moderate diurnally. Fluence is forecast to remain below the active threshold of 1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1.
If solar wind activity increases as expected in response to the high speed stream emanating from CH45/-, then electron flux may start to show enhancement from late on 30 Jul.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-27T00:31:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |