Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-25T00:09:36

The high energy electron flux will start at background levels, but likely to see a rising trend to moderate or high levels through day 1 (25th), albeit with some temporary electron redistribution associated with increased geomagnetic activity. Generally high levels expected thereafter, as the high speed stream persists.

Fluence levels will be well below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) at first, but likely to rise above by the end of day 1. Generally active conditions then expected through the rest of the forecast period, with a slight chance of reaching very active levels (above 1e9 integrated pfu) on days 2 and 3 (26th & 27th). Previous rotation's fluence data is assessed as better guidance to expected levels than from the current REFM.