MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-24T00:06:55
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron counts will start the period at background levels, but expected to increase after coronal hole 75 high speed stream establishment by day 2 (25th). Further temporary electron re-distribution is likely associated with any more significant geomagnetic activity on day 2, but the increasing trend should continue through the rest of the forecast period.
Corresponding electron fluence values are forecast to increase significantly from day 2, when likely to exceed the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). Current REFM data doesn't support this scenario, but recurrence data is considered better guidance at this stage.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-24T00:06:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 10% |