Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-23T00:07:10

Electron counts are expected to remain at their current background levels for another two days. Once the high speed stream from CH75 becomes established electron counts will begin to rise. By late 25 Oct or during 26 Oct this is expected to mean high flux (above 1e3 pfu) and fluence in excess of the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu. The REFM output for this period looks to be slightly slow to bring fluence figures up, so it is worth allowing for higher values from mid/late 25 Oct onward, certainly closer to 1e8 integrated pfu.