Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-22T00:22:54

The high energy electron flux has been held at background to moderate levels due to recent geomagnetic activity as the high speed stream from coronal hole 83 became established.  This is now likely to increase sharply with solar wind speeds of 600km/s, reaching the high threshold by the end of day 1.  On the previous rotation, once reaching the high threshold this level was maintained for 5 days.  Balancing the higher starting point on this occasion against the slightly lower solar wind speed, predominantly high levels are expected through the remainder of the period, but with brief falls due to diurnal variations.

Given the likely increase in electron flux, the 24 hour fluence is expected to exceed the Active threshold on day 1, based on persistence, but slightly ahead of REFM expectations. This is then expected to be sustained for much of the forecast period.