MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-18T00:06:23
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at background to moderate levels until day 4, then increasing to become moderate and perhaps reach high levels (1000 pfu) during the diurnal peak due to the influence of the high speed stream from CH73. These values, however, are not expected to be sufficient to increase the associated electron fluence to Active (1e8 integrated pfu). Therefore the Met Office REFM is offering good guidance for the next 3 days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-18T00:06:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |