MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-21T00:00:36
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be mainly in the normal background to moderate range (1000 pfu or less). The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is expected remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, with a predicted gradual decline from REFM 3-day forecast output. This trend is also supported by 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-09-21T00:00:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |