Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-28T00:38:10

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start at background levels, but is expected to increase through day 1 (28th). It is then likely to diurnally fluctuate between High and Very High levels for the remainder of the forecast period. The corresponding fluence is also forecast to rise. It is expected to exceed the Active threshold (>1e8 integrated pfu) on day 1 (28th) and is likely to exceed the Very Active threshold (>1e9 integrated pfu) by day 3 (30th). The REFM recurrence model showed a strong and quick response to Active, then Very Active, following the previous rotation of this coronal hole high speed stream. The forecast model indicates a rising trend, but with the high speed stream not yet fully engaged, it hasn't yet fully responded to expectations.