MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-28T00:16:03
The high electron flux is likely to continue to peak at high levels (over 1e3 pfu) diurnally during this forecast period, perhaps with a slight drop-off towards 31 Oct. Fluence figures are likewise forecast to remain high and above the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu. Fluence in excess of 1e9 integrated pfu is expected on 28 Oct and is now looking more likely than not on 29-30 Oct.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-28T00:16:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 100% |
| Day 2 | 100% | 80% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 60% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 20% |