MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-21T00:05:12
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to oscillate diurnally between background and moderate levels over the next four days. Although the positive large coronal hole 75 is forecast to become geoeffective from day 4 (24 Oct), a response in the electron flux is not expected until day 5 (25 Oct).
Corresponding electron fluence values are consequently expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold until at least day 5 (25 Oct).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-21T00:05:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |