MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-05T00:14:27
Electron flux over the next four days is likely to continue in a similar vein to previous days, albeit with a slow downward trend. Daily maxima are still expected to remain at high levels though.
Similarly the 24 hour fluence is forecast to trend downwards. REFM gives an idea of this but is likely to drop levels too early. Current expectations are for active fluence (over 1e8 integrated pfu) until at least the end of 06 Oct.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-05T00:14:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |