MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-29T00:11:12
The high energy electron flux quickly rose through the high threshold (1e3pfu) today (28 Sep), with a current peak of 1.99e4pfu at the time of writing. Over the next 4 days flux levels are expected to be at mainly high or very high (greater than 5e4pfu) levels.
The corresponding high energy electron fluence values has also risen quickly through the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is similarly expected to remain Active, or perhaps even reaching Very Active (1e9pfu) levels through the forecast period. This is supported by both REFM output, and persistence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-09-29T00:11:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 99% | 40% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 50% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 60% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 60% |