Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-15T00:08:11

With no significant enhancements to electron counts expected initially, high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is forecast to remain mostly between background to moderate levels. It may show a slight upward trend, depending on the influence of CH71, generating a diurnal peak flux close to, or perhaps just above the high threshold (greater than 1000 pfu). However, as the solar wind increases later in the period, under the influence of the positive extension of the coronal crown, we should see a gradual increase of the electron flux on day 4 (18th), perhaps exceeding high levels (1000pfu).

Corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout.