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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-09T00:34:19

High energy electron flux values are forecast to be mainly moderate on day 1 (9 Nov.) with slow-ambient solar wind conditions and a brief increase to high flux levels during the diurnal maximum. More sustained high electron flux levels are then forecast from late on day 2 and through day 3 (10&11 Nov.) as the Earth connects with the high speed stream from coronal hole 79.

Electron fluence values are expected to stay below the Active threshold on day 1 (9 Nov.) with an increasing chance of reaching this level due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-11-09T00:34:19
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 10% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 40% 1%