MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-09T00:34:19
High energy electron flux values are forecast to be mainly moderate on day 1 (9 Nov.) with slow-ambient solar wind conditions and a brief increase to high flux levels during the diurnal maximum. More sustained high electron flux levels are then forecast from late on day 2 and through day 3 (10&11 Nov.) as the Earth connects with the high speed stream from coronal hole 79.
Electron fluence values are expected to stay below the Active threshold on day 1 (9 Nov.) with an increasing chance of reaching this level due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-09T00:34:19 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |