MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-10T00:29:29
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are likely to decline slightly through diurnal cycles on days 1 and 2, but then increase, perhaps reaching high (1e3 pfu) peaks on days 3 and 4 due to the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream.
Electron fluence values are forecast to be at mainly moderate levels, but with an increasing risk of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 4 due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-10T00:29:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |