MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-16T12:13:41
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GEO 16 is expected to persist within the current diurnal range, remaining below the Alert threshold. The associated electron fluence is also currently below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and is expected to remain below throughout. This is supported by REFM, and the 27-day recurrence, which currently gives good guidance. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of 11 to 15 percent over the next few days (Days 2 to 4), which is probably slightly overdone.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-16T12:13:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |