Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-11T00:05:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background levels although it peaked at moderate levels during the last 24-hour diurnal cycle. With coronal hole 99 high speed stream now waning, electron counts are expected to rise over the next few days, with an increasing chance of diurnal peak values above the alert level (1000 pfu) during the diurnal cycle. However these are unlikely to be sufficient to raise the 24-hour integrated fluence levels to the Active threshold.

The REFM model is indicating a rise to near the Active threshold, but fairly low confidence. The rising probabilities shown are therefore more a reflection of reducing confidence with time, before the arrival of the fast wind from the next coronal holes.