Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-18T00:25:13

The current high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is at background levels. These levels are expected to persist for much of the period, however there is the potential for a small rise in values by the end of the period, mostly evident at diurnal peak where Moderate or, perhaps briefly High (above 1000 pfu), levels are possible. The associated 24 hour fluence, however, is expected to remain at background levels throughout, albeit with an increasing trend in response to any enhancement by the end of the period. This is supported by REFM which currently gives good guidance.