Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-24T00:20:31

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux measure by GOES-16 reached high (greater than 1000pfu) levels at diurnal peak in the last 24 hours, likely due to a delayed response from the elevated solar winds that have been occasionally buffeting Earth at times in the last 3-4 days. Otherwise, mainly moderate levels have been observed. These elevated solar winds are expected to gradually ease during the next two days, with further periods of high electron flux possible. From day 3 onward, electron flux is likely to return to mostly background levels.

The associated electron 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to rise, approaching the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) during days 1 and 2, but currently not expected to exceed it. Both the REFM (beyond 24 hours), and 27-day recurrence based models remain unreliable as the observed solar winds are very different to the previous rotation.