MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-31T00:23:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measure by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. With solar wind expected to remain near background, no significant enhancements are expected to these flux levels, persisting at mainly background levels throughout.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM forecast, which currently gives good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-31T00:23:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |