MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-29T00:00:32
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be at predominantly background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. This is supported by both the REFM forecast and the 27-day recurrence. The recurrence-persistence model has low single figure percentage values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-29T00:00:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |